Our 2022 data brief, Reversing Nearly a Decade of Positive Trends: The Lingering Impact of the Pandemic on Young Adults Who are Out of School and Out of Work in New York City, co-authored with Community Service Society, highlighted a concerning trend: over 138,000 young adults in New York City were identified as out of school and out of work—defined as 16- to 24-year-olds who are not in school and not engaged in the labor market. That number marked a significant rise attributed to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The analysis explored various facets of this critical issue, including demographic trends, educational attainment, and labor market participation, while offering policy and workforce recommendations to tackle it. However, the latest data from the American Community Survey paints a brighter picture, showing promising signs of recovery for New York City’s young adults.

A Positive Shift

According to the latest figures, the number of young adults in New York City categorized as out of school and out of work has decreased from 16% to 12%, the lowest rate observed to date. This decline aligns with a national trend where the rate dropped from 12.1% to 10.9%.¹ Notably, the share of young adults aged 16 to 19 who are not working has also decreased significantly, from 73% in 2012 to 64% in 2022.² These numbers suggest a growing trend of young adults engaging in the workforce, positioning them to acquire the skills and experiences needed for a successful transition to adulthood. Staying engaged in either school or work or ideally both, ensures that young people develop the competencies necessary to secure higher-paying jobs and greater economic stability in the future. “Connecting young people to education and employment generates significant personal, social, and economic benefits. For instance, our research shows that young people who remain engaged in school or work during their teens and early twenties earn, on average, $38,400 more each year in their thirties compared to their peers who were disconnected from such opportunities,” says Alex Powers, Associate Director at Measure of America. 

Count and Share of Young Adults Who are Out of School and Out of Work in New York City

American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample for 2010 to 2022

Understanding the Shift

This positive change can largely be attributed to increases in secondary and post-secondary enrollment. While the exact reasons for these improvements are still being investigated, the rise in vocational programs and shorter-term degrees from post-secondary institutions is likely a key factor, as these programs offer more targeted pathways to employment.

Despite these improvements, over 108,000 young adults in New York City remain outside both the education system and the labor market. Addressing this issue requires innovative programming and strategies that enhance inclusion, leverage technology, and foster employer partnership. Insights from young adults themselves will be crucial to these efforts.

Trends We Are Watching

Migration From NYC: One notable trend is the migration of adults of all ages out of New York City, with over 78,000 people leaving in 2023 alone. This exodus, driven largely by rising living costs, including limited affordable housing and high childcare expenses, has been especially pronounced among Black families. The higher migration rates in these subgroups underscore the urgent need for improved support systems to train and retain New Yorkers. As Jennifer Hinjosa, Policy Analyst at Community Service Society notes, “The rising cost of housing, food, and mass transit are exacerbating the financial hardships on low-income New Yorkers today, driving many to leave New York City. This exodus emphasizes the need for policies that ensure equitable access to affordable housing and economic opportunities, with a particular focus on young adults. It is imperative for city leaders to cultivate an environment conducive to upward economic mobility among the city’s youth population.”

• Migration Into NYC: Conversely, New York City has experienced an influx of over 200,000 new residents in the past two years. This increase in population has highlighted the need for enhanced infrastructure to support temporary housing and accommodate a rising number of students who need support to thrive as a part of our workforce. Addressing these gaps is crucial for ensuring that both new and existing residents have access to the resources and opportunities needed for success including affordable housing, quality education, accessible job training programs, and pathways to stable employment.
• Part-Time and Gig Work: Many young adults are engaged in part-time or gig economy jobs, which often lack the stability and benefits associated with traditional employment. While these roles offer some income, they may not provide the necessary foundation for long-term self-sufficiency or wealth building. This highlights the need for structured career pathways and support for individuals in nontraditional work settings, such as bridge programs and career-connected learning in schools. Ensuring longer post-placement services and enhanced skill development opportunities for part-time workers is crucial, and fostering collaboration among workforce training providers and employers can enhance program design, maximize resources, and expand access to higher-quality jobs.

• Disability: The intersection of out-of-school, out-of-work rates, and disability presents a critical challenge. Nationally, 1 out of 4 young adults with a disability is out of school and out of work. According to research conducted by the Yang-Tan Institute on Disability and Employment at Cornell University, New York City Public Schools serve almost 200,000 students with disabilities, over 25,000 of which have significant disabilities. Advocates emphasize that policies designed with a focus on those furthest from equity ultimately benefit everyone. By addressing systemic barriers, we can create inclusive systems that empower young adults with disabilities to thrive.

A Call to Action

To address the challenges facing young adults in New York City, a coordinated effort is crucial. “Our goal should be to create a city where every young person has access to meaningful pathways for personal and professional growth, regardless of their racial or ethnic background, neighborhood, or circumstances. We must redouble our efforts to create innovative, inclusive programs that reconnect our youth with opportunities in New York City,” says Hinojosa. This means building stronger partnerships between government, the private sector, and community organizations to harness diverse expertise and resources. Embracing innovative solutions and new technologies is key to enhancing workforce development and educational programs. Systemic changes, such as redesigning educational pathways and support structures, are also needed to effectively tackle gaps and barriers.

While the decline in young adults who are out of school and out of work is a testament to the impact of the work that JobsFirstNYC and our partners do to collaboratively identify challenges, incubate new solutions, and advance what works, the challenge of over 108,000 young adults in New York City remaining outside the education system and labor market highlights that our work is not yet done.

The insights and data presented should serve as a foundation for developing targeted strategies and innovative solutions that address the unique needs and barriers faced by young adults in the City. By fostering greater collaboration and leveraging technology and community insights, we can collectively address these barriers and build a more inclusive and supportive environment for all young adults.

¹https://ssrc-static.s3.amazonaws.com/moa/APortraitofNewark.pdf
²https://www.aecf.org/blog/who-are-opportunity-youth#:~:text=For%20more%20than%20two%20decades,2000%20to%204%25%20in%202022
³https://www.insidehighered.com/news/students/retention/2024/01/24/enrollment-rising-first-time-pandemic
⁴https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/nyregion/nyc-population-decline.html
⁵https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/nyregion/black-residents-nyc.html#:~:text=858-,Why%20Black%20Families%20Are%20Leaving%20New%20York%2C%20and%20What%20It,here%20has%20become%20too%20expensive.&text=Sign%20up%20for%20th%20Audio%20newsletter%2C%20for%20Times%20subscribers%20only
⁶https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2024/06/following-asylum-seeker-odyssey/382850/